RBI Repo Rate Hike: The three-day Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the Reserve Bank of India is from 28 September to 30 September. After reaching the level of 7 percent again in the month of August, it is believed that the RBI may increase the repo rate for the fourth consecutive time in the policy meeting. Global event and financial firm Morgan Stanley believes that RBI may increase the repo rate by 0.50 percent.

Morgan Stanley has said in its report that, earlier we had estimated that the repo rate may increase by 35 basis points. But given the rise in inflation and the attitude of central banks around the world, we estimate that the repo rate may increase by 0.50 percent.

Earlier, RBI increased the repo rate by 1.40 percent. For the first time in May 2022, the RBI increased the repo rate by 40 basis points, for the second time in June by 50 basis points, and then in August by 0.50 percent. And now once again the possibility of increasing the repo rate is being expressed. According to Morgan Stanley, retail inflation in the month of September is likely to remain in the range of 7.1 to 7.4 percent due to costlier food items. However, after this, the inflation rate may come down by January-February and it may remain above 6 percent till January-23 February.

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According to the report, the inflation rate may continue to rise due to the pick-up in food inflation. Since the sowing of paddy and pulses has come down compared to last year, there is a risk of increasing import inflation due to rise in commodity prices and depreciation of the rupee against the dollar. As a result, retail inflation may continue to rise.

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